​Note: These projections have been superseded by Population Projections Main Update (2014 Release)

This page provides two past projections of the Northern Territory population.  These projections have been superseded by projections from the Main Update (2014 Release), which are based on the latest published data from the ABS. 

Past projections were formulated using the cohort component method and their values reflect the consequence of applying assumptions made at that time about the future direction and levels of fertility, mortality and migration. They should not be interpreted as accurate forecasts or predictions. Past population projections should be considered with caution. In particular, the regional projections will suffer more limitations than the Northern Territory total projections because the base input data are less accurate for smaller geographic areas, and the migration flows become more complex at lower geographic levels as intra-regional as well as interstate and international migration to the Territory needs to be taken into account.

Population Projections Interim – Update (2013 Release)

The Interim – Update (2013 Release) projections were based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) data from the 2011 Census. Two sets of population projections were produced:

  • residents of the whole of the Northern Territory from 2011 to 2041, disaggregated by individual year of age, sex and Indigenous status; and

  • residents of the Greater Darwin region (Darwin City, Palmerston and Litchfield), and the rest of the Northern Territory. These projections are made available for 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026 disaggregated by five-year age groups, sex and Indigenous status.

An overview report is provided along with detailed projection results. The impact of a range of alternative migration scenarios is explored in Appendix 1 of the overview report.

Population Projections Interim - Update (2013 Release) (pdf, 619kb)
Population Projections Interim - Update (2013 Release) (docx, 674kb) 

Output Files

NTG projections scenario 

NTPOP summary NTG 13 (xls, 49kb)
NTPOP single year age NTG 13 (xls, 409kb)
NTPOP 5 year age NTG 13 (xls, 131kb) ​

Population Projections 2011

The Population Projections 2011 were based on ABS ERPs, with the jump-off population (2010) based on ABS ERPs derived from data from the 2006 Census. Two sets of population projections were produced: 

  • residents of the whole of the Northern Territory from 2010 to 2040, disaggregated by individual year of age, sex and Indigenous status; and
  • residents of each of the Northern Territory statistical reporting regions Darwin region (Darwin City, Palmerston and Litchfield), Rest of Darwin (Finniss, Bathurst Melville and Alligator), Katherine, East Arnhem, Barkly and Alice Springs). These projections are made available for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 disaggregated by five-year age groups, sex and Indigenous status. 
An overview report is provided along with the detailed projection results. Projection results are provided for two scenarios – NTG baseline projections and High migration. The differences between these two scenarios are discussed in the overview report.
  

High migration scenario

Northern Territory population projections are reviewed annually and updates produced as necessary. A major review and re-release of population projections conducted every five years following the release of data from the Census. 

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