Main Update (2014 Release)

The Northern Territory Population Projections have been developed to meet the needs of Northern Territory Government agencies as well as the broader community. The assumptions and parameters on which they are based are the result of consultation within Northern Territory Government. The process has also involved Charles Darwin University (CDU) whose staff provided expert advice as well as the technical expertise to develop a projections model (NTPOP).

The Main Update (2014 Release) provides projections of the Northern Territory population with the jump-off population (2011) based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics final estimated resident population (ERP) derived from the 2011 Census. Assumptions about the levels of and trends in fertility, mortality and migration for the projection period are based on patterns over the past 10 years except where data or other limitations required use of data over a shorter period of time.

The Main Update (2014 Release) includes information on two sets of population projections:

  • residents of the whole of the Northern Territory from 2011 to 2041, disaggregated by individual year of age, sex and Indigenous status; and
  • residents of each of six Northern Territory regions: Greater Darwin (Darwin City, Darwin Suburbs, Palmerston and Litchfield), Rest of Darwin (Daly-Tiwi-West Arnhem), Katherine, East Arnhem, Barkly and Alice Springs. These projections are made available for 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, disaggregated by five-year age groups, sex and Indigenous status.

The projections are formulated using the cohort component method and their values reflect the consequence of applying certain assumptions about the future direction and levels of fertility, mortality and migration. They should not be interpreted as accurate forecasts or predictions. The alignment of projections to actual ERPs can be expected to deteriorate over time. All population projections should be used with caution. In particular, the regional projections will suffer more limitations than the Northern Territory total projections because the base input data is less accurate for smaller geographic areas, and the migration flows become more complex at lower geographic levels as intra-regional as well as interstate and international migration to the Territory needs to be taken into account.

The overview report for the Main Update (2014 Release) is provided below along with a mathematical description of the NTPOP projection model and detailed projection results. The overview report includes sensitivity analyses which explore the effect of change in the assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.

NT Population Projections - Main Update (2014 Release) (pdf, 850kb)
NT Population Projections - Main Update (2014 Release) (docx, 830kb)

Mathematical details of the NTPOP projection model (pdf, 619kb)

Output Files

Two previous releases of population projections can be accessed from the past Population Projections page.