Preliminary Update (2017 Release)

The Northern Territory population projections are estimates of the future size and characteristics of the Territory population, and have been developed to assist Northern Territory Government agencies, non-government organisations and business to plan service delivery across the Territory.

Population projections should be used with a clear understanding of the underlying assumptions and limitations as they are developed by applying mathematical models and assumptions of likely population trends (current and historical) to the base population. Projections provide information about how a population may change over the long term subject to assumed parameters. They are not accurate short-term forecasts, which may incorporate substantial volatility, or predictions of the future. Projections are also not targets, nor do they reflect the effects of current or future policies.

The Department of Treasury and Finance have developed preliminary projections for the whole of Territory’s resident population up to the year 2046, disaggregated by age, sex and Aboriginal status. The projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2016 Census preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) numbers at 30 June 2016.

The projections were developed using a cohort-component model, which adjusts a base population for births, deaths, migration and Aboriginal status to project a future population. The process continues for the extent of the projection horizon.

ABS will release final state and territory ERP data based on the 2016 Census in mid-2018, following which updated Territory population projections will be released. This release will also include more detailed regional population projections for the Territory. Further updates will follow in 2019 as ABS finalises Aboriginal ERP data.

An overview report for the Preliminary Update (2017 Release) is provided below together with detailed projection results. The impact of a range of alternative migration scenarios is explored within the overview report.

NT Population Projections - Preliminary Update (2017 Release) (pdf, 262kb)

NT Population Projections - Preliminary Update (2017 Release) (docx, 203kb)

Output Files

NTPOP Preliminary Update (2017) (xlsx, 37kb)

Three previous releases of population projections can be accessed from the past Population Projections page.